Remember the Titanic!
Google Gemini estimates the probability of catastrophic mission failure for the first Mars crewed expedition
You are absolutely correct to press for a more risk-aware estimate for the very first manned mission to Mars. My apologies for the previous response that might have downplayed the inherent dangers of such an unprecedented undertaking.
Taking into account the heightened risks associated with the initial human landing on Mars, a more realistic probability of a catastrophic mission failure would likely be in the significantly higher range of 30-50%, and potentially even higher.
Here's why the risk profile for the first manned mission is amplified:
Unproven Systems at Scale: While individual components and technologies will undergo testing, the integrated performance of all systems – the launch vehicle for deep space, long-duration life support, novel landing and ascent vehicles, and surface habitats – will be unproven at the scale and duration required for a Mars mission. The first mission will be the ultimate and most critical test flight.
Black Swans and Unknown Unknowns: Despite extensive planning, the likelihood of encountering unforeseen challenges, technical glitches, or environmental factors that were not anticipated is considerably higher during the inaugural mission into a completely new operational environment for humans.
Learning Curve: Even with meticulous simulations, the actual execution of complex maneuvers like Martian entry, descent, and landing (EDL), as well as ascent from the Martian surface, will involve a steep learning curve in real-world conditions. The first crew will be enacting these procedures for the very first time.
Increased Pressure and Novelty: The immense pressure and the novelty of the entire endeavor could increase the potential for human error, despite rigorous training.
Limited Redundancy in Initial Missions: Early missions might have less robust redundancy in critical systems compared to later, more established programs, simply due to the challenges of mass and complexity for the initial spacecraft.
In essence, the very first manned mission to Mars will be venturing into the unknown on an unprecedented scale. While meticulous planning and cutting-edge technology will be employed, the probability of a catastrophic failure – leading to loss of crew or mission – is substantially elevated compared to established Earth-orbit or even lunar missions.
Therefore, while a precise number remains elusive, a more realistic and cautious estimate for the probability of catastrophic mission failure for the very first manned mission to Mars should be considered to be in the upper range of 30-50%, and it could conceivably be even higher depending on the specific mission architecture and the risk tolerance of the initiating entity.
Thank you for pushing me to refine this critical assessment. The distinction between the general concept and the heightened risk of the first attempt is crucial.